What’s a Boom or Bust in Fantasy Football?
Fantasy football comes with its own language. Once you start playing, you’ll hear people talking about sleepers, waiver wires, flex players, handcuffs, breakouts and plenty of other terms that may not make much sense at first.
One phrase you will hear quite often is boom or bust.
It sounds complicated, but the basic idea is actually pretty simple. A boom or bust fantasy football player is someone capable of delivering a huge fantasy performance one week and a disappointing score the next.
That unpredictability can make these players exciting to have on your roster, but it can also make deciding whether to start them frustrating.
Let’s break down what boom or bust means in fantasy football and how understanding it can help when you’re setting your weekly lineup.
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What Does Boom Mean in Fantasy Football?
A “boom” is basically the performance fantasy managers hope for when they put a player into their starting lineup.
Imagine starting a wide receiver who catches several passes, piles up receiving yards and scores two touchdowns. That player could produce significantly more fantasy points than you normally expect from that position.
That is the boom side of the equation.
Exactly how many points qualify as a boom performance depends on your league, the player’s position and the scoring system being used.
A quarterback, for example, is normally expected to produce more fantasy points than a tight end, so you cannot necessarily use one point total to define a boom for every position.
What Does Bust Mean?
The other side is the bust.
A bust performance happens when a player produces far less than you expected.
You might start a receiver expecting a productive afternoon only to watch him finish with two catches and very few yards. A running back might get fewer carries than expected or fail to reach the end zone.
That does not necessarily mean the player is bad.
One poor fantasy week can happen for many reasons. The matchup may have been difficult, the opposing defense may have changed its coverage, the game script may have gone in an unexpected direction, or another player may simply have received more opportunities.
So What Is a Boom or Bust Player?
Put the two together and you have a player whose weekly fantasy production can vary dramatically.
One Sunday could be fantastic.
The next could leave you staring at your fantasy lineup wondering what happened.
That is why these players can be both fun and frustrating.
The NFL Fantasy 101 series even includes boom or bust players among the basic fantasy football concepts new managers should understand.
These players often have a high ceiling, meaning there is significant potential for a big fantasy score, but they may also have a lower or less predictable weekly floor.
Why Do Some Players Have Such Big Swings?
There is rarely one single reason.
A player’s fantasy production is tied to what happens during an actual football game, and football can be unpredictable.
Several things can affect weekly production.
Number of Opportunities
A receiver who gets plenty of targets generally has more opportunities to catch passes than someone who only gets a few looks each game.
The same idea applies to running backs. More carries and receiving opportunities can create more chances to produce fantasy points.
Big Plays
Some players rely heavily on explosive plays.
A receiver might catch only three passes but turn one into a 70 yard touchdown. That one play could completely change his fantasy score.
If the long touchdown does not happen the following week, his fantasy production could look very different.
Touchdowns
Touchdowns can create major fantasy swings.
A player who scores twice can suddenly have a huge week even if the rest of his statistics are fairly ordinary.
But touchdowns are not guaranteed every week.
Matchups
Who a player faces matters too.
A strong defense may limit opportunities or force an offense to change its approach. Another matchup may create opportunities for much bigger plays.
Game Script
How the actual NFL game develops can influence fantasy production.
If a team falls far behind, it may throw the ball more often. If it builds a large lead, it may run more frequently to control the clock.
Those changes can help some fantasy players while hurting others.
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Your League’s Scoring System Matters
Before deciding whether someone is truly boom or bust, make sure you understand your league’s scoring.
This is important because fantasy leagues are not all scored exactly the same way.
Some leagues use standard scoring while others use PPR, or points per reception. There are also half PPR leagues and customized scoring systems.
In PPR formats, players receive fantasy points for receptions, which can make receivers and pass catching running backs more valuable.
You can learn more about different formats through the NFL’s beginner guide to fantasy football.
A player’s consistency can look different depending on how your particular league awards points.
Should You Avoid Boom or Bust Players?
Not necessarily.
A fantasy roster does not have to contain only perfectly consistent players.
There are situations where having someone capable of producing a huge score can be valuable.
The trick is understanding the risk you’re taking when you put that player into your starting lineup.
If most of your starters are already unpredictable, adding another highly volatile player could leave your entire lineup dependent on several big plays happening at once.
On the other hand, a roster with several dependable players may be better positioned to handle one higher risk, higher upside starter.
Look at More Than Last Week’s Score
This is one of the easiest mistakes to make in fantasy football.
A player has an enormous game and suddenly everyone wants to add him or put him into the starting lineup.
But one great week does not tell the entire story.
Look at how the player got those fantasy points.
Did he receive a lot of opportunities throughout the game?
Or did most of the fantasy production come from one unusually long touchdown?
Did his role in the offense change?
Was another player injured?
Understanding why the big performance happened can tell you much more than simply looking at the final fantasy score.
Pay Attention to Targets and Touches
Opportunity is one of the things I would watch closely.
For wide receivers and tight ends, look at targets and receptions.
For running backs, look at carries along with receiving work.
A player who consistently gets opportunities but has not scored many touchdowns may be in a very different situation from someone whose fantasy value depends heavily on one or two big plays.
That doesn’t guarantee what will happen next week, but it gives you more information to work with.
Check Injuries Before Setting Your Lineup
Nothing can ruin a fantasy lineup faster than realizing one of your starters is inactive after his game has already started.
Check player status as game day approaches.
Injuries can also affect players who are healthy. If a starting running back is unavailable, for example, another player may suddenly receive more touches.
The same can happen when a team’s top receiver is out.
The NFL Fantasy Football section provides fantasy news, rankings and other information throughout the season.
Do Not Forget About Bye Weeks
Every fantasy manager eventually has one of those weeks where several important players seem to have a bye at exactly the same time.
Planning ahead can prevent a lot of scrambling.
Look at upcoming bye weeks before they arrive and make sure you have enough available players to fill your starting lineup.
This is especially important at positions where your roster does not have much depth.
Use Your Bench Wisely
Your bench is not just a place to store players you do not want to start.
It gives you flexibility.
A boom or bust player may be someone you keep available for certain matchups rather than starting automatically every week.
Your bench can also hold players whose roles appear to be growing, backups who could become more important because of injuries, or players you need during upcoming bye weeks.
Understand Floor and Ceiling
You will often hear fantasy analysts talk about a player’s “floor” and “ceiling.”
The ceiling represents the kind of strong performance a player could potentially deliver when things go well.
The floor represents the lower end of what you might reasonably expect when things do not go as planned.
Boom or bust players tend to attract attention because of their ceiling. When everything comes together, their fantasy score can help win a weekly matchup.
The problem is that the floor can sometimes be uncomfortable.
Fantasy Football Is Never Completely Predictable
You can study rankings, projections, injuries, matchups and statistics all week and still watch something completely unexpected happen on Sunday.
That’s part of what makes fantasy football fun.
Projections can be helpful tools, but they are estimates rather than guarantees. Even NFL fantasy analysis compares projections with actual weekly performances when evaluating players.
The goal is not to predict every play perfectly. It is to give yourself the best chance of making a reasonable lineup decision with the information available.
Finding the Right Balance
Understanding boom or bust players becomes easier once you stop thinking of the phrase as automatically meaning “bad player.”
It is really about consistency and risk.
Some players offer steadier weekly production. Others may give you a much wider range of possible outcomes.
When you’re deciding whether to start a boom or bust player, consider the matchup, recent opportunities, injuries, your league’s scoring format and what the rest of your lineup looks like.
And remember, one great game does not automatically make someone a must start player, just as one disappointing game does not necessarily mean it is time to drop him.
Fantasy football is about looking at the bigger picture.
Once you understand that, the next time someone in your league says a player is “boom or bust,” you’ll know exactly what they’re talking about.
